The Last Card to Play

Standing on a knife’s edge

Failure.

[Update: Per Talking Points Memo:

Senate Democrats gave up their sole point of leverage Thursday, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced that he would help Republicans pass a continuing resolution that slashes domestic spending and specifically targets Washington D.C. with massive, punitive cuts.

While the CR is bad, Schumer said from the Senate floor, a shutdown would be “much, much worse.”

This is tragically misguided and just tragic.]

Here we are again, another government funding crisis, another last-minute scramble, and another opportunity for Republicans to hold the country hostage in exchange for massive spending cuts that disproportionately harm working-class Americans and disproportionately benefit the 0.01% who are the ultra-wealthy. Earlier this week, the House passed a six-month stop-gap funding bill, but it's now up to the Senate to decide whether to go along with it or push for something less draconian. That is to say, it's up to Senate Democrats to push for something less draconian because almost every single Republican is completely on board with this deeply harmful and dangerous bill. Democrats are holding out for a 30-day extension to buy more time for negotiations, which surpasses my understanding because, like their counterparts in the House, Senate Republicans have shown no interest in negotiating with Democrats. They are banking on their reliably weak-kneed Democratic colleagues to succumb to pressure and vote for a bill that is—or should be—anathema to them. This is being presented as a situation in which Senate Democrats are stuck between the Scylla of causing a government shutdown or the Charybdis of caving into the Trump regime's agenda.

That is a false choice that Democrats seem to have locked themselves into. There's a third way: Let Republicans take responsibility for their bill. As Schumer pointed out earlier today, there were no negotiations. There were no concessions to Democrats because. Why? Republicans don't need to consider the Democrats at all—they control both houses of Congress. Because the House is a majoritarian institution, Republicans did not need any Democratic votes and, therefore they crafted a bill without any Democratic input that will cause grievous pain to the vast majority of Americans and potentially deal a fatal blow to our system of governance.

If there were to be a shutdown, it would not be because of anything the Democrats did. The Democrats themselves seem not to understand this. Perhaps it is because they don’t that they haven’t even attempted to engage in the messaging war let alone try to win it.

Democrats should be explaining to the American people why voting against the continuing resolution is the best thing to do—for them and the future of our country. Why? Because a government shutdown would be less devastating than allowing this bill to go forward.

Schumer attempted to make a stand, sort of, when he proposed reaching across the aisle. Does he think Republicans are going to go along with this? Of course not. They have proven themselves to have bought into the Trump regime's fascist agenda, just as they seem perfectly willing to cede their duly granted Constitutional power to the unelected madman named Elon Musk.

Republicans are already calling it the “Schumer shutdown,” taunting Democrats to fall in line. Instead of taking the bait, Democrats need to grow up.

It’s important to be as clear as possible about what's at stake here because whether the government shuts down or this bill passes, Americans are going to suffer. It's just a question of which is going to be worse—and how long the suffering will last.

Let's look at the logistics. Senate Republicans have a 53 to 47 edge in the Senate, but they need 60 votes here. Why? Because the United States Senate is not a democratic institution and to pass a bill by a majority vote, they need to overcome cloture which requires 60 votes. That’s why Senate Republicans need at least eight Democratic senators to help them out. (Republican Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has already said he will not vote for the spending bill.)

Schumer initially took a hard stance against the bill, but he's allowing the debate to play out, which is not a good sign. Some Senate Democrats up for re-election like John Ossoff of Georgia and Mark Warner of Virginia are reportedly worried about making the prime targets unless they cave to GOP pressure, which gives us some insight into everything that's wrong with American politics and with this Democratic party.

If you're worried about your reelection chances more than you’re worried about the future of your country, maybe you should retire before you throw every one of your constituents under the bus; or you should pay attention to what is happening now and gain some insight into what exactly is in this bill, what it portends for the American worker and the United States.

Meanwhile, Senate majority leader John Thune is pretending that what happens next is up to the Democrats. No, it's not. Republicans have the majority. It's up to them. Nobody negotiated with Democrats. Democrats have absolutely no responsibilities here except to stand up against fascism.

The continuing resolution Republicans are proposing is a six-month extension of the budget with all sorts of horrific expenditures and draconian cuts built into it. The Democrats are trying to negotiate a 30-day continuing resolution to open up the possibility of negotiations. So maybe the Republicans will permit them to negotiate with them. It's total nonsense. This is a bait and switch and it would be utter malpractice, it would be insanity for the Democrats to give away literally the only leverage they have—and that is the power to deny Republicans the ability to get to the 60-vote threshold.

And they would be doing this in exchange for what exactly? Offering amendments to the bill that probably wouldn't pass anyway. In other words, they seem poised to give up the only power they have in exchange for nothing.

Donald is personally invested in this showdown. The White House is taunting Democrats, daring them to vote no so they can be blamed for the shutdown. It's all theater. Everything's WWE because Donald and the fascist Republicans believe that no matter what happens, they'll win.

But first I want to talk about who will be affected if the government shuts down. The immediate fallout, of course, will be clear. We know this because we've been through this before. The government shut down twice during the first Trump administration. Federal employees get furloughed; national parks get closed; social security services are delayed; there are longer wait times at airports.

But let’s talk about what happens if the bill does pass because that is the crux of this matter, and not enough people are bothering. Shutdowns are temporary. The impact of this bill will be permanent. This will change the DNA of America. This bill is being framed as a compromise to keep the government running, but in reality, it's a blank check for the Trump regime’s spending priorities. And how exactly is it a compromise if the minority party wasn't even consulted?

One consequence is that Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have sweeping control over the disbursement and control of federal funds. In other words, congressional Republicans will further cede all of their constitutional power over such things. Steep spending cuts target social programs, veterans benefits, Medicaid, and food assistance programs like SNAP, while defense spending and Donald's cruel immigration crackdowns will be funded at even higher rates.

Republicans insist this bill doesn't touch social security benefits, but what they're not telling us is that the cap on the administrative budget will likely force Social Security to reduce staffing levels. There’s more than one way, after all, to go about harming the American people. If you really think hard enough, that not only means fewer staff but longer wait call times and potential delays in disability claims processing— something that disproportionately affects seniors and low-income Americans.

If the government shuts down, there will be fewer staff at key agencies, but temporarily. Payments will continue as usual. If the bill passes, however, the administrative services to the agency are on the chopping block, potentially delaying payments for the foreseeable future. The bill also guts $23 billion from veterans’ healthcare and housing assistance. This will have the greatest impact on veterans with PTSD those who are homeless. All of this while Republicans push to extend tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy.

Democratic senator Patty Murray called this bill a slush fund for Donald Trump and said military families will be at risk. Speaker Mike Johnson's constituents are bracing for Medicaid and SNAP (formerly food stamps). In rural Louisiana, nearly 25% of adults under 65 rely on Medicaid, and nearly 20% of households receive food assistance. These programs face cuts or new work requirements under the House GOP's budget resolution even though rural areas often lack jobs or reliable transportation,

Senate Republicans, of course, are claiming this is all about fiscal responsibility. But let's do the math. The bill makes modest cuts while adding billions to defense and border security. The projected savings is projected to be $8 billion by 2034 which is a rounding error in a budget as enormous as the budget of the United States of America. Meanwhile, the federal deficit is expected to hit $2.7 trillion the same year since Republicans plan to extend Donald's tax cuts to the Ultra-wealthy from 2017 This will add another $4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. Meanwhile, Medicaid, which helps out poor disabled people, will be slashed in order to make up the difference so the billionaires can have more.

Why are the Republicans in Congress ceding almost every single one of their constitutional duties over to Elon Musk?

If the government shuts down, yes, it's going to be painful, but it will be temporary. If this bill passes, the pain will last for years. I have to be honest with you, we may not recover from it ever. Every day Americans will continue to bear the cost of the Republicans’ reckless spending cuts while billionaires and defense contractors get even richer. So, yes, the Republicans want to keep the government running, but at what cost?

I want to provide some context here. The American Federation of Government Employees, (AFGE) is the largest union of its kind, representing over 800,000 civil servants.

Leadership is very familiar with how much the people they represent hate government shutdowns because it means being furloughed; they will go without paychecks and sometimes they do not know for how long. And yet, the AFGE is asking senators to vote no on the House-produced continuing resolution. Why? Because the Union rightly believes that passing this horrific bill and everything that will ensue from it will be worse than a government shutdown.

In a letter, AFGE does not believe that voting against the continuing resolution means voting for a government shutdown because they understand the nuance of these things. The letter also points out that the Trump regime has announced its intention effectively to destroy the Department of Education regardless of whether Congress approves or disapproves of that decision. And then AFGE makes one of the best points I've yet seen made about the current state of play under the corrupt stewardship of Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

With thousands of federal workers either fired, placed on administrative leave, or at immediate risk of losing their jobs, AFGE members have concluded that a widespread government shutdown has been underway since January 20 and will continue to spread whether senators vote yes or no on H.R. 1968. Under the current CR, federal workers are being treated no better than they will be if government funding ceases Friday night. Yes, it is true that workers who have not yet been fired are at least drawing a paycheck - for now. But if H.R. 1968 becomes law — a measure that ignores the administration's brazen refusal to carry out duly enacted laws of Congress and further erodes Congress's power of the purse - AFGE knows that DOGE will dramatically expand its terminations of federal workers and double down on its campaign to make federal agencies fail because there will be nothing left to stop the Administration for the balance of fiscal year 2025 if ever.

Senate Democrats: If there's a shutdown, it is not your responsibility. This is a wholly-owned Republican bill; all of the power in this country is currently wholly owned by the Republican party. It is Republicans who have the power to destroy this country once and for all. Please do not help them in their efforts. You are worried about being blamed for the shutdown. If you make common cause with the fascists in their desire to kill American democracy by helping them pass this bill, history will blame you for that. And so will those of us who care enough to be paying attention.