Donald's Weak Exit Polls

Lessons of Super Tuesday

At first glance, seeing a twice-impeached, 91-count-criminal-indicted defendant, who’s been found liable for fraud and rape become the de-facto Republican nominee for the presidency of the United States is horrifying.

As disturbing as this graphic is, it gets worse.

Before Super Tuesday polls even opened, I was greeted with this headline from The Washington Post’s, “The Early 202” in my inbox yesterday morning: “Super Tuesday Caps a Strong Political Week for Trump,” which is not how I wanted to start my day.

The degree to which Donald’s criminality, alleged and actual, authoritarianism, bigotry, and unfitness (both characterological and temperamental) all continue to be normalized by a weak, complacent, and, in some cases complicit media. It surpasses belief.

The idea that Donald could win a single vote, let alone an election, is almost too much to bear.

However, the exit data show something promising – how WEAK Donald will be in the general.

When I hear what some Republican voters are actually saying, I feel hope – not because we know anything with certainty, but because a path to defeat Donald is clearly emerging.

Inspiring data—Donald’s Nikki Haley headache

No one can or should spin the fact that Donald commands a hefty lead of support with Republican voters. Considering the state of the Republican party, there are no surprises here.

Nikki Haley was never going to win the primary, but what she accomplished was perhaps even more important. She helped to cultivate a significant and growing electorate — Never-Trump Republicans. These voters include:

• Republicans who never supported Donald

• Republicans who previously voted for Donald, but are now waking up

The second group provides the biggest chance for coalition-building in 2024. One of the reasons we know this is a real possibility is because these voters are engaged.

Take this Haley voter who gave the best reason for switching from Donald to Haley — “because the man is a lunatic.”

When this voter was asked what she will do in the general election, when there is a binary choice between Donald and Biden, she said, “I don’t know. It will be a hard decision.”

This is the audience we must reach: the swing voters who need to hear just how much better Biden is than the “lunatic.”

There are many people like her in key swing states and it’s telling that Haley performed best in the states that are the most important for Democrats to win like Virginia and Colorado where she pulled in over 33% of the vote.

This phenomenon goes beyond anecdotal evidence.

Exit data were horrible for Donald

Let’s take a deeper look at some more numbers.

Consider CNN’s exit poll data, which Manu Raja called a “warning sign” for Donald in the general election. In North Carolina, a state that is a much better representation of the country than some of the other deep red states:

• A significant 66% percent of Haley voters said Donald is not physically or mentally fit to be president.

• A vast majority, 81% of Haley voters, said they’re not an automatic vote for Donald.

According to ABC News, In Virginia, a plurality of Haley voters said they approved of the job Joe Biden was doing as president. In North Carolina, the number was 50%.

Haley voters have much more in common with Biden voters

The candidate who captures more of Haley’s voters will have the easiest path to victory in the general election.

And if you are looking for more encouragement, check out the priorities of these voters:

According to ABC News

• 76% of Haley voters oppose a federal abortion ban

• 60% support a chance for most undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status.

While 59% of Donald’s voters say they are “angry about the way things are going in this country,” only 21% of Haley’s voters feel that way.

These people need to hear just how much they have in common with Democrats, and just how determined Donald Trump is to derail progress on the issues they claim to care about while destroying everything they claim to value.

We just need to reach them.

Because, as Bob Cesca of The Bob Cesca Show, says, Donald always makes things worse for Donald, the leader of the Republican Party is giving us a head start.

Donald insulted Haley’s voters and then tried to bully them into voting for him

Before Super Tuesday, Donald made his stance on Haley donors crystal clear (while calling Haley a “birdbrain” in the process).

“Anybody that makes a ‘contribution’ to Birdbrain [Haley], from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp,” Donald wrote on Truth Social. “We don’t want them, and will not accept them.”

After Super Tuesday, Donald wrote again on Truth Social, "Much of [Haley’s] money came from Radical Left Democrats, as did many of her voters, almost 50%, according to the polls."

It’s now up to us to remind these voters what Donald really thinks of them, and how unwelcome they will be in their own party—every chance we get.