Defying Expectations
A good week for Democrats
It too often seems impossible to escape the relentless bad news the corporate media insists on feeding us. On the one hand, there’s the coverage of Donald’s vile behavior (his threats and his grifting and unceasing efforts to delay his criminal trials), and on the other, there’s the treatment of the 2024 presidential election as a horse race (which frames Donald Trump as a normal candidate and gives him an advantage he doesn’t deserve).
As the debacle of NBC’s hiring and then almost immediately firing Ronna Romney McDaniel showed us, it seems the corporate media would prefer to transition us to fascism instead of doing it’s part to protect American democracy.
When Donald dominates the news cycle, it’s hard not to feel overwhelmed. Every bad headline has a negative impact. But then I remember something crucial: There’s usually more to the story than meets the eye.
I’m determined to cut through the media noise and share with you all the good that happened this week. These are the headlines we need to remain energized and hopeful that the media largely ignored.
We should never let our guard down, but we need to remember to take a deep breath and remind ourselves that there are so many reasons to be optimistic.
Today, President Biden had the most successful political fundraiser in American history.
In a blockbuster fundraiser with Presidents Biden, Obama, and Clinton joining forces in New York City (thanks for the traffic, guys!), the campaign has already revealed it’s raised a staggering $25 million. This amount sets a record for the biggest cash haul for a political event ever.
Let me repeat that: EVER.
Fueling the War Chest
As a result, President Biden’s $155 million+ war chest has just received another turbo boost, bringing the total of cash on hand to at least $180 million. (By comparison, between his campaign and the RNC, Donald barely has over $50 million — and continues to drain the accounts to cover his absolutely staggering legal expenses). This is a development that could significantly increase Biden’s ability to influence the narrative in crucial swing states. In politics, money translates to ads, ground operations, and outreach. With this windfall, Biden’s team gains some much needed momentum that can go far in countering the negative press around his poll numbers and age. Here is a not-so-subtle message to naysayers: Democratic enthusiasm isn’t waning; it’s surging.
Democratic Enthusiasm
The media often paints a picture at odds with reality — one that often overlooks the steadfast support for Biden among Democrats. While critics have expressed doubts about the degree to which the Democratic base is fired up as compared to 2020, today’s $25 million fundraiser, raised with donations ranging from $250 to $500,000, should put any doubts to rest — yes, we are absolutely behind President Biden and Vice President Harris and we’re in this fight until the end.
The Bandwagon Effect and Perceptions of Strength
The bandwagon effect is the tendency people have to adopt beliefs or behaviors because others do. When people witness a surge of support, they’re drawn to join in. Biden’s fundraising triumph isn’t just about the money (although we can’t deny the importance of that); it’s about optics. Studies have found that when voters viewed a candidate as strong, successful, and effective, they were more likely to cast their ballots in their favor. Biden’s $25 million haul isn’t just a financial coup; it’s an invitation to hop on the bandwagon — a signal that he’s a formidable contender.
Democrats keep defying expectations by winning important elections
Despite the pessimistic prognosticators, Democrats have largely over-performed in important races in the last two years. They successfully thwarted the largely anticipated red wave in the 2022 midterms, they picked up a crucial judicial seat in Wisconsin, and have been buoyed by victories in special elections nationwide largely fueled by the horrific Dobbs decision that did away with the right to choose.
This week in Alabama, Democrat Marilyn Lands won her special election in large part because she centered her campaign on abortion and IVF access. And not only did she win, but she flipped a seat in a deep-red state by 25 points. In Alabama!
Democrats will try to replicate that success by adding abortion measures to ballots in several other states. These recent developments underscore the reality that women’s reproductive issues will continue to play a major role in 2024.
President Biden leads Donald in eight polls
First, let’s address the elephant in the room: polls. Yes, those early, ever-fluctuating polls that can either lift our spirits or plunge us into despair. We’ve learned the hard way that polls are often wrong. Here’s my position: It is way too soon to put too much stock in any poll. And even as the election gets closer, the best course of action is to assume we’re 5 points down so we don’t get complacent and keep fighting.
Polls, however, can be useful when it comes to revealing trends.
When one poll says Biden is up, that’s one thing. But when eight polls do? Then maybe we should take a closer look.
In eight of the most recent head-to-head polls, Joe Biden holds a slight lead over Donald — and his advantage ranges from one to three points on a national basis.
Key findings from the polls include:
Emerson College: Initially tied at 45%, Biden pulled ahead to 51% once undecided voters leaned toward a candidate.
Mainstream Research/Florida Atlantic University: Among likely voters, 47% would vote for Biden, while 45% would choose Donald.
Ipsos and Reuters: In a poll of registered voters, 39% favored Biden, 38% supported Donald, and 11% preferred another candidate.
Civiqs: 45% of registered U.S. voters would vote for Biden in an immediate presidential election, compared to 44% for Donald.
YouGov/The Economist: The most recent survey gives Biden a one-point lead at 45%.
Kaiser Family Foundation: Biden leads by three points, with 47% of the vote.
TIPP: Biden has a one-point lead with 44% support.
While head-to-head polls may not always reflect the intricate dynamics of swing states, it’s worth noting that President Biden is now making important inroads in those crucial battlegrounds as well.
Biden gains ground against Donald in six key states
President Biden has made significant progress against Donald in six out of seven battleground states in the past month.
A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicates that Biden has narrowed the gap almost across the board. Notably, Biden has erased Donald’s lead in the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, the two are tied, while in Wisconsin, Biden leads Donald by 1 point. Additionally, Biden has weakened Donald’s lead in Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina, though a few points still separate them.
Don’t get me wrong, this is still too close and, like you, I find it inconceivable that an incompetent, criminal, cruel, autocratic wannabe like Donald is a candidate at all, let alone a viable one. While I will likely spend the rest of my life trying to understand how we got here, how even ONE human being not on Donald’s payroll could think he should be back in the White House, what these data do show is that President Biden has the momentum right now, while Donald is, finally, losing ground.
Biden is winning the vast majority of women voters
According to a new Quinnipiac general election poll, 60% of women support President Biden over Donald.
The support of women, particularly Black women and suburban women, was critical to Biden’s victory in 2020. And note this: The gender gap in support for Biden and Harris four years ago was 9 percentage points, with 55% of women supporting them.
That means we’re already seeing a 5% increase from 2020.
The RNC’s fundraising challenges continue
The Republican National Committee (RNC) is currently facing significant fundraising challenges, which could have far-reaching implications for the party’s performance in upcoming elections.
The RNC currently has around $11 million on hand for 2024. To provide some perspective, they had $77 million at this point in the 2020 cycle. Meanwhile, the DNC is outraising the RNC by a margin of 2:1.
The RNC is also setting aside large sums of money in anticipated battles to challenge the results of the 2024 election. This means they’re forced to cut back on spending in other important races for the GOP. Apparently, trying to steal the election doesn’t make for good politics–or good economics.
To make matters worse, their fundraising, especially among small donors, continues to show signs of drying up, with donors saying they are less likely to donate than they have in the past. That could spell trouble for Republican turnout in 2024.
Republicans show softened attitudes about President Biden
In a race that could very well come down to who voters don’t want to see in the White House, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that more Democrats feel “fearful” or “angry” about Donald’s winning than Republicans feel the same about Biden.
This could prove to be a significant “motivating factor in Democratic turnout in November” and could spell trouble for Donald if Republicans remain unengaged.
Although some of the latest polls indicate a lead for Biden, now is not the time for complacency. Let’s not rely on the polls. They are a snapshot in time, not a prediction. We need to pull out all of the stops this year to ensure that Donald loses, we take back the House, and we win a meaningful majority in the Senate.
The corporate media has proven they either can’t or won't get the truth out. So, those of us with a platform have to commit to filling that void.
America remains on a knife’s edge between democracy and fascism. We cannot pretend otherwise.
If white women voted like black women, no republican would win an election.
Excellent post, Mary. It’s so important that we keep our foot on the gas, no matter what the polls say, no matter what the news of the day is. We cannot let up. There is so much MAGA stupidity in this country to overcome. We’ve got to keep fighting, every day.